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Piracy D-Day: A reality?

7/1/2015

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Piracy is a given.  In a world where listeners were raised alongside the rise of Napster and LimeWire, the word itself has lost its sting of illegality.  The conversation about its detriments has turned tiresome, as at this point, it would be difficult to rewire the expectations of consumers.  However, if a piracy-free industry were possible, what would it look like?

Universal Music Group, along with consulting firm Bain & Company, has conducted a study on how a post-piracy society would perform.  According to their research, music sales would skyrocket to 17 times what they are now in three years if piracy and free content were eradicated tomorrow.
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Here’s the model in action: prior conditioning would result in most listeners refusing to pay during the first year, but beyond that, there would be a surge in paid subscription services, as well as vinyl, CD, and digital sales.

It may seem a tad fantastical, but UMG pictures a “Piracy D-Day” where there’s a serious crackdown on illegal downloading and a decrease in freemium services.

The plan?  Removing domain names, content-blocking by ISPs, and intensified actions in court in conjunction with increased political backing (essentially, everything we are doing now to the 10th degree).

With the upswing in streaming services such as Spotify, is this piracy-free vision realistic?  Many artists, like Nikki Sixx of Motley Crue, don’t see freemium as such a bad omen: “What put a thorn in my ass was seeing fans getting sued.  Now I can just pay a subscription and get all this music… I think it is a healthier answer.”

According to the LA Times, piracy has actually gone down, most likely because of freemium subscriptions.  Will Apple Music give us that feeling of “walking into an independent record shop,” as Trent Reznor conceives, or will its launch this week set us years back in UMG’s projections?

Sources:
Recording Sales Would be 17 Times Higher Without Piracy, UMG Study Finds…
Music Piracy is Down but Still Very Much in Play
Trent Reznor compares Apple Music to the 'feeling of walking into an independent record shop'

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